The Chinese equity market delivered a mixed performance in the fourth quarter of 2024, shaped by policy-driven optimism and structural divergence. The quarter began on a positive note, with the MSCI China All Shares Index surging 23% during the last five trading days of September, buoyed by unexpected government economic policy changes. However, after the October National Day holidays, the market began to consolidate amid cautious sentiment and a lack of detailed measures to boost the economy further.
As a result, the index declined by 6.3% in Q4 2024. Reflecting its growth-orientated approach, our China fund experienced a sharper correction, returning -11.5% during the same period. This erased much of the alpha generated since the fund's re-initiation on 1 August. Despite the volatility, our China fund delivered an annual return of 12.4% in 2024, outperforming the index, which posted an 11.4% return, achieving a 1% alpha for the year.
On 24 and 26 September, the Chinese government announced an unexpected, broad, and coordinated set of support measures to stimulate the flagging economy. A series of gradual but accelerated policy implementations followed, encompassing fiscal and monetary initiatives alongside structural strategies. These included expanding domestic demand, stabilising the property market, and supporting foreign trade, which together spurred a rapid recovery in market sentiment. Investment in equipment and infrastructure increased significantly during the fourth quarter, while consumption of home appliances and automobiles also improved.
At the December Politburo meeting, the government proposed adopting a "moderately loose" monetary policy - the first such declaration since 2011. At the Central Economic Work Conference, officials further emphasised plans to increase the fiscal deficit ratio in 2025, signalling a commitment to bolstering economic growth.
Turning to our portfolio, Qifu, a loan facilitation platform, was the largest positive contributor to the fund's performance for the second consecutive quarter. Following our active engagement, the company revised its total return policy upward, resulting in a total shareholder yield (dividend + buyback) of 15% in 2025. Meanwhile, the top performer was smartphone maker Xiaomi, which surged 53% in Q4 2024 after the successful debut of its electric vehicle (EV) business. We maintain a favourable outlook for Xiaomi in 2025, as it stands to benefit significantly from the Chinese government's trade-in program for both consumer electronics and EVs.
Despite this strong performance, the market faces potential headwinds in 2025. Two key risks warrant close monitoring:
- Fiscal policy efficiency: While the fiscal stimulus package has been a game-changer, its long-term success will hinge on the effective allocation of funds and the sustainability of consumer confidence.
- Geopolitical risks: Elevated geopolitical tensions, particularly as the United States prepares for its presidential transition, pose a significant risk. A re-escalation of trade tensions or increased regulatory scrutiny could dampen investor sentiment.
Nonetheless, we remain cautiously optimistic. The combination of attractive valuations and a supportive policy environment provides a solid foundation for sustained market strength. As 2025 begins, we believe China is well positioned to reclaim its role as a key driver of global economic growth.
Performance in USD net of fees.
The information should not be used as the sole basis for an investment. Please read the Prospectus and the KID, which are available on the fund page. This publication is not directed at you if we are prohibited by any law in any jurisdiction from making this information available to you and is not intended for any use that would be contrary to local laws or regulations. Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, but it may be based on unaudited or unverified figures or sources.